A forecast into Canada's political climate
A political forecast is like predicting the long-range weather. There's usually agreement on what's going to happen in the short-term, but once we start imagining more than five days into the future, the potential to be embarrassingly incorrect is high.
This is why journalists and media people love the end of December and the beginning of January. It's a chance to look back at events that have already taken place and give a thumbs up or down. As much as I'd like to take a hammer and scalpel to 2007's political highlights, I simply don't have space to do the job properly. Plus, I've been cutting up and hammering people for The ‘Bang since September, and those columns are available online. So, without further introduction, here are my predictions for 2008.
I honestly forsee a spring election in Canada.
The past year has been disastrous for the Liberal Party, but despite the complete incompetence of the party's leadership, despite having no money and fewer morals, the party is still nearly dead even with the Conservatives in most polls. The problem is that most Canadians believe Stephen Harper makes a stronger Prime Minister than Stephane Dion.
So while the parties are more or less equal, support for the leaders is one sided. The Liberal Party is going to push for an election sooner than later, to give Dion a chance to leave the political arena fighting. In politics, where appearance and public relations count for more than substance, the party needs to have a valid reason to kick out a useless francophone, and losing an election will provide the perfect reason to boot Dion to the sidelines in favour of someone who can match wits, as it were, with Stephen Harper.
Leadership is the biggest difference between the parties right now. Neither party can be distinguished from the other. There are former Liberals now serving with the Cons. There are former Cons who are now Liberals. The policies of both parties differ only in terms of how fast they can sell the country out from under the feet of Canadians.
The Cons want it done right now, with a minimum of debate, so as to maximize profits and prepare us all for a future of part-time jobs at foreign owned Timmies.
The Libs agree that business of Canada is not really anyone's business but the ruling elite (i.e. them, their supporters), but they don't mind stringing out the process of ruining the country for a while because committees and public investigations and court cases and consulting gigs put cash in the pockets of Liberals, courtesy of the public.
The Liberals will trigger an election before the Cons can release their spring budget. If it goes ahead, the spring budget will surely be one of the most blatant studies in buying votes ever witnessed in Canadian politics. Even greater than the Con budget of 2007, where the self-proclaimed party of fiscal restraint spent more than any other government in the history of the country... and then cut taxes.
The Libs can't allow the Cons to top their ‘07 budget, and they need to get rid of Dion, so there will be an election in early spring. The Cons will lose some overall support, maybe gain a seat or two in Quebec, the Libs will lose some support to the Cons and NDP, and the Bloc will lose support across Quebec. The end result will not be noticeable to anyone other than the politicians and their partisans and the media.
My prediction: another Conservative minority.
There will be an important US election in November. The Americans will be choosing a new President. Dubya has to leave. I can't predict who'll win, but I can say with confidence that it'll be cynically fun to watch as the politicians in the States scramble like blood-thirsty vampires to win the ultimate seat of power. I will take two to one odds on the idea that Dubya will use some kind of terrorist attack, or the potential of one, to give himself another term as President. He sees his contemporaries Pervase Musharif and Vlad ‘The Impaler' Putin, and that radical freak, Hugo Chavez, remaining in powerful positions despite their countries constitutions and conventions, and Dub wants to keep up with the boys. Barring this coup, however, I can see Mike Huckabee winning the Republican nomination (note: Huckabee doesn't believe in dinosaurs, evolution, or the real age of the planet).
The Democratic candidate will probably be Hilary Clinton and I'll take odds that Barack Obama will be her Vice-Presidential choice. Odds in Vegas favour assassination attempts on both by the winter of ‘08.
Afghanistan will deteriorate further. Canadian troops will be forced to exist in fortified camps, visiting politicians will wave at them out the window of armoured Hummers, and the Afghans will begin to wonder if the Taliban was that bad after all. If this sounds like a replay of 2007, well... Not much I can say about that.
Unless Ron Paul or Dennis Kucinich becomes President of the USA, the war in Iraq will continue. Since neither Paul nor Kucinich have any kind of chance whatsoever, the war in Iraq will continue. Please try and remember this.
Editorial opinions or comments expressed in this online edition of Interrobang newspaper reflect the views of the writer and are not those of the Interrobang or the Fanshawe Student Union. The Interrobang is published weekly by the Fanshawe Student Union at 1001 Fanshawe College Blvd., P.O. Box 7005, London, Ontario, N5Y 5R6 and distributed through the Fanshawe College community. Letters to the editor are welcome. All letters are subject to editing and should be emailed. All letters must be accompanied by contact information. Letters can also be submitted online by clicking here.
This is why journalists and media people love the end of December and the beginning of January. It's a chance to look back at events that have already taken place and give a thumbs up or down. As much as I'd like to take a hammer and scalpel to 2007's political highlights, I simply don't have space to do the job properly. Plus, I've been cutting up and hammering people for The ‘Bang since September, and those columns are available online. So, without further introduction, here are my predictions for 2008.
I honestly forsee a spring election in Canada.
The past year has been disastrous for the Liberal Party, but despite the complete incompetence of the party's leadership, despite having no money and fewer morals, the party is still nearly dead even with the Conservatives in most polls. The problem is that most Canadians believe Stephen Harper makes a stronger Prime Minister than Stephane Dion.
So while the parties are more or less equal, support for the leaders is one sided. The Liberal Party is going to push for an election sooner than later, to give Dion a chance to leave the political arena fighting. In politics, where appearance and public relations count for more than substance, the party needs to have a valid reason to kick out a useless francophone, and losing an election will provide the perfect reason to boot Dion to the sidelines in favour of someone who can match wits, as it were, with Stephen Harper.
Leadership is the biggest difference between the parties right now. Neither party can be distinguished from the other. There are former Liberals now serving with the Cons. There are former Cons who are now Liberals. The policies of both parties differ only in terms of how fast they can sell the country out from under the feet of Canadians.
The Cons want it done right now, with a minimum of debate, so as to maximize profits and prepare us all for a future of part-time jobs at foreign owned Timmies.
The Libs agree that business of Canada is not really anyone's business but the ruling elite (i.e. them, their supporters), but they don't mind stringing out the process of ruining the country for a while because committees and public investigations and court cases and consulting gigs put cash in the pockets of Liberals, courtesy of the public.
The Liberals will trigger an election before the Cons can release their spring budget. If it goes ahead, the spring budget will surely be one of the most blatant studies in buying votes ever witnessed in Canadian politics. Even greater than the Con budget of 2007, where the self-proclaimed party of fiscal restraint spent more than any other government in the history of the country... and then cut taxes.
The Libs can't allow the Cons to top their ‘07 budget, and they need to get rid of Dion, so there will be an election in early spring. The Cons will lose some overall support, maybe gain a seat or two in Quebec, the Libs will lose some support to the Cons and NDP, and the Bloc will lose support across Quebec. The end result will not be noticeable to anyone other than the politicians and their partisans and the media.
My prediction: another Conservative minority.
There will be an important US election in November. The Americans will be choosing a new President. Dubya has to leave. I can't predict who'll win, but I can say with confidence that it'll be cynically fun to watch as the politicians in the States scramble like blood-thirsty vampires to win the ultimate seat of power. I will take two to one odds on the idea that Dubya will use some kind of terrorist attack, or the potential of one, to give himself another term as President. He sees his contemporaries Pervase Musharif and Vlad ‘The Impaler' Putin, and that radical freak, Hugo Chavez, remaining in powerful positions despite their countries constitutions and conventions, and Dub wants to keep up with the boys. Barring this coup, however, I can see Mike Huckabee winning the Republican nomination (note: Huckabee doesn't believe in dinosaurs, evolution, or the real age of the planet).
The Democratic candidate will probably be Hilary Clinton and I'll take odds that Barack Obama will be her Vice-Presidential choice. Odds in Vegas favour assassination attempts on both by the winter of ‘08.
Afghanistan will deteriorate further. Canadian troops will be forced to exist in fortified camps, visiting politicians will wave at them out the window of armoured Hummers, and the Afghans will begin to wonder if the Taliban was that bad after all. If this sounds like a replay of 2007, well... Not much I can say about that.
Unless Ron Paul or Dennis Kucinich becomes President of the USA, the war in Iraq will continue. Since neither Paul nor Kucinich have any kind of chance whatsoever, the war in Iraq will continue. Please try and remember this.
Editorial opinions or comments expressed in this online edition of Interrobang newspaper reflect the views of the writer and are not those of the Interrobang or the Fanshawe Student Union. The Interrobang is published weekly by the Fanshawe Student Union at 1001 Fanshawe College Blvd., P.O. Box 7005, London, Ontario, N5Y 5R6 and distributed through the Fanshawe College community. Letters to the editor are welcome. All letters are subject to editing and should be emailed. All letters must be accompanied by contact information. Letters can also be submitted online by clicking here.
