On Oct. 14, Canada expelled six Indian diplomats, including the high commissioner. In response, India ordered the expulsion of six senior Canadian diplomats and recalled its envoy from Canada. At the same time, the public accusations by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau against India in connection with the killing of Canadian Sikh leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar have ignited a diplomatic storm, raising questions about the potential repercussions on Canada-India relations.

While the Canadian government has cited an ongoing Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) investigation, the lack of hard public evidence has led to polarized opinions, both domestically and internationally.

Fanshawe professor in the School of Language and Liberal Studies, Glen Morgan discussed the implications of Trudeau’s decision to go public with the accusations and whether it was a strategic move. According to Morgan, the announcement was unusual, considering the ongoing investigation.

“Typically, when an investigation is in progress, details are kept confidential until charges are laid or more concrete evidence is available,” he said.

Morgan suggested that Canada’s need for international support might drive Trudeau’s decision to accuse India publicly.

“Canada is not a global heavyweight, whether diplomatically or militarily, and the government may have needed to rally allies to apply pressure on India. Since the public accusation, we’ve seen condemnations from the United States and the United Kingdom. Trudeau likely sought these countries’ backing to amplify Canada’s concerns,” he explained.

However, the strategy has significantly affected Canada-India relations, which Morgan believes are now at a historic low.

“India’s immediate denial of the allegations, coupled with Canada’s insistence on their validity, has led to a sharp deterioration in diplomatic ties. Given India’s prominent role as a source of international students and skilled workers, there could be long-term consequences on immigration and bilateral trade,” Morgan said.

India is one of the most significant contributors to Canada’s international student population, particularly in post-secondary institutions like Fanshawe College. With tensions running high, prospective students may reconsider their plans to study in Canada, which could have a lasting impact on Canadian universities and colleges.

“This situation might tarnish Canada’s image as a welcoming place for Indian students and immigrants,” Morgan added.

Domestically, the accusation has also stirred polarization, particularly in Canada’s multicultural society. Morgan warned that diplomatic conflicts like this can heighten underlying racial tensions.

“Canada is known for its multiculturalism, but that doesn’t mean we’re free of racism. This situation might inflame divisions between communities, especially those with ties to India,” he said.

The international community is also watching closely, but Morgan does not expect a significant fallout with Canada’s other partners. “While India has allies like Russia through organizations such as BRICS, Canada’s ties with the U.S. and other Western countries remain strong. I don’t foresee this affecting Canada’s broader international relationships,” he said. “The issue may remain largely confined to Canada-India relations, at least in the immediate future.”

One of the most complex aspects of this case lies in the ethical considerations surrounding Trudeau’s decision to make the allegations without presenting clear public evidence.

“It’s perplexing,” Morgan said. “On the one hand, the RCMP investigation is ongoing, so they may have evidence they’re not yet disclosing. On the other hand, Trudeau publicly accusing India and then admitting that no evidence has been made public is risky. It puts the government in a difficult position, especially if the investigation doesn’t yield the expected results.”

The case centres around Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a prominent Sikh activist in Canada, who was shot and killed outside a temple in Surrey, B.C., on June 18, 2023. His murder has heightened tensions within the Sikh community and placed additional strain on already delicate Canada-India relations. While Nijjar was born in India, he was a Canadian citizen at his death.

Morgan concluded by stating that the full consequences of this diplomatic clash are still unfolding.

“It’s an evolving situation, and we may not understand the full impact for months if not years. However, the strain on diplomatic and immigration ties between the two countries is undeniable,” he said.