Predicting our political future

Here are my election predictions.

Conservative minority: Probably one with fewer seats than the party had in August. This election was called for no other reason than the Conservatives thought - and craved - a majority government.

The odds makers behind the scenes in Con-Central must have figured that the worst the party could do was another minority. Otherwise there was no reason to call an election. Sure, sure, Prime Minister Harper claimed parliament wasn't functioning. I never did understand that one, because the Cons were never seriously challenged on any bits of legislation, other than ticky-tack hairsplitting stuff. So the Cons rewarded themselves and Canadians with an election, despite governing the country with a de facto majority, courtesy of the spineless Liberal Party.

Curiously, I'm not sure the Conservatives were ready. After watching my home-riding MP wander around a couple fall fairs, searching for someone's hand to shake, looking confused and tired, not surrounded by any aides or helpers, I started to wonder what was going on in Con-land.

The minister I'm referreing to was Diane Finley, the Immigration Minister, and multiple cabinet minister, whose husband ranks up high in the party's behind-the-scenes players. If Finley wasn't getting any help from the party, then what about someone like Mary Lou Ambrogio, the Con candidate in London-Fanshawe, who had to be handed her own party's press releases so she knew what her leader was telling the nation (Harper also mispronounced her name at a function several weeks ago... not a ringing endorsement), a candidate who failed to show up for two recent All Candidate Events at Brescia College and here at Fanshawe's Forwell Hall.

For a party with a lot of money saved up for an election, for a party that had been on election watch for well over a year, such poor organization makes me wonder if the party could organize a circle jerk at an orgy.

The Cons may have sniffed a majority if the economy hadn't taken over the news. Once the price of oil dropped to around $90 a barrel Harper's and the party's boasts of fine economic stewardship dropped as fast as the Toronto Stock Exchange. You see, it was the price of oil, which has driven Canada's economy the past while, not any innovation or fine leadership from our federal leaders. Now that the price is tanking, the Conservative money managing credibility go with it.

Canadians will notice this, will remember the poorly organized local campaigns, and they'll also remember who called an election for no good reason other than pure political opportunity at a time when our MPs probably should have been doing their fucking jobs.

Green Leader Elizabeth May will not win her Central-Nova seat. She will be handed a Liberal seat, with the catch-line that Canada needs Elizabeth May in parliament. Likely the Liberals will force some backbench, quiet, hardworking actually elected MP to give up his-her seat to May. May will then be able to prop up the Liberal's green credentials by her mere presence in the house. What this move will do for the credibility of both May and the Liberal Party is more difficult to predict.

Stephane Dion, surging lately with a little bit of fighter in his normally beige style will keep up the act, and start wearing nicer and nicer suits, maybe with a rose in the lapel, a la Pierre Trudeau. It won't be enough to save his job, as hopeful scavengers like Micheal Ignatieff will mount a take-over from within. Dion will be lucky to be leader of the Liberals much beyond early 2009.

The Liberal Party will probably make gains this election. Talk about rewarding failure. For well over a year now, as the official opposition, the Liberals haven't even been voting against anything... at all. They abstained from voting on every piece of important legislation possible, a rather sad statement from the official opposition. I predict more of the same following October 14.

The NDP will gain a couple seats. The party will be blamed for putting the Conservatives back into power by splitting the “left” vote. The NDP, like the Cons, had a decent amount of money raised for this election, but only candidates in winnable ridings were given any support. It's a little hypocritical for the NDP to lay claims to gender equality, social justice, and so on when they toss candidates under buses come election time. And the next NDP MP I meet from a rural riding will be the first. It's difficult to win those votes with the party's ill concealed contempt for rednecks.

As a final prediction, I admit to believing that I'll still dislike politicians on October 15, no matter who gets in where, with however many seats. These people are not working together. They aren't leaders. It's politicians, the process and likely the media that is turning Canadians off the political process. The differences between the major parties are so fine that they argue over tax policy most and point fingers at one another instead of dealing with problems as they arrive.

Sadly, I predict we're in for a big dose of status quo: inept leaders and a shrinking turnout of voters.

Don't be part of the problem - vote.

Editorial opinions or comments expressed in this online edition of Interrobang newspaper reflect the views of the writer and are not those of the Interrobang or the Fanshawe Student Union. The Interrobang is published weekly by the Fanshawe Student Union at 1001 Fanshawe College Blvd., P.O. Box 7005, London, Ontario, N5Y 5R6 and distributed through the Fanshawe College community. Letters to the editor are welcome. All letters are subject to editing and should be emailed. All letters must be accompanied by contact information. Letters can also be submitted online by clicking here.